A new S&P Market Intelligence report estimated the probability of default in the restaurant industry sits at nearly 25% as the coronavirus pandemic wreaks havoc on small and large businesses.
"US restaurants are being hit particularly hard by widespread stay-at-home guidelines and business closures, which contributed to a near-50% drop year over year in spending at restaurants and bars during April," the report said.
BTIG managing director and restaurant analyst Peter Saleh told S&P Market Intelligence that the impact of COVID-19 varies among different parts of the restaurant industry. The franchised fast-food industry, he said, faces a lower risk of defaulting on debt. There's a likely higher default risk for casual dining restaurants, he told S&P Market Intelligence.
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