Retail rents are likely to decline by 5.5% in 2020, as discretionary retailers like apparel stores, specialty shops as well as dining establishments have been pummeled by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new report from JLL.

The company's analysis pointed to a clear bifurcation in the retail market, where essential retailers, led by grocery stores, thrived in the first part of 2020, while non-essential retailers saw plunging sales thanks to mandatory closure orders.

As a consequence, JLL's "moderate" forecast anticipates that rents will drop more than one point below the 4.4% decline that marked the nadir of rents in the Great Recession.

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Erika Morphy

Erika Morphy has been writing about commercial real estate at GlobeSt.com for more than ten years, covering the capital markets, the Mid-Atlantic region and national topics. She's a nerd so favorite examples of the former include accounting standards, Basel III and what Congress is brewing.