The delinquency rate for commercial mortgage-backed securities shot up faster than ever as the COVID-19 pandemic gripped global life. But it could have been worse, according to Trepp's latest CMBS delinquency rate report.
With stay-home orders putting many businesses in a drawn-out standstill, the rate for May hit 7.15%, up from April's 2.29%, according to Trepp.
The May rate could have been worse, nearer to 10%, because of the high number of borrowers in April who missed their payments. Instead, many of those loans remained in the categories of being in a "grace" or "beyond grace" period, while others reverted to "current" rather than moving into the "delinquent" category—loans that are 30 days or more past due.
"Given that about 8% of loans had missed payments for the April remittance cycle, the fact that delinquencies went up less than 5% has to be viewed as a small 'win,'" Trepp said in the report.
The delinquency rate fell short of the all-time high since Trepp began tracking in 2009. The record delinquency rate stands at 10.34%, set in July 2012, according to Trepp.
By property type, the delinquency rate rose most in lodging and retail. Lodging increased from 2.71% delinquent in April to 19.13% delinquent in May. Retail jumped from 3.67% in April to 10.14% in May.
Increases were far smaller in industrial (1.36% in April to 1.82% in May), multifamily (1.92% to 3.25%) and office (1.92% to 2.40%).
In its report, Trepp also looked at what's ahead for the delinquency rate. June's rate could climb higher "considering that about 7.6% of loans by balance missed the May payment but remained less than 30 days delinquent."
Also looking ahead, Fitch Ratings in April projected the CMBS delinquency rate would "peak between 8.25% and 8.75% by the end of the third quarter of 2020." By sector, Fitch sees delinquency rates for hotel and retail properties increasing the most, to about 30% and 20.%, respectively.
Borrowers with CMBS loans who miss or expect to miss payments may have options for riding out their troubles, wrote Tanya Hart Little, CEO of Hart Advisors Group in an earlier article for GlobeSt.com. "I do not think special servicers will deal with these loans the same as the Great Recession, because this recession is different."
For investors looking to gobble up distressed properties, including a few with CMBS loans, the wait may be a while. Lenders, especially banks, are working with troubled clients and keeping their loans properties on their books, said Brian Stoffers, global president of CBRE's debt and structured finance group.
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Thomas Phillips
Thomas Phillips is part of the social media team at ALM Media.
