This recession is fundamentally different than the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, and as a result, the opportunities to benefit from the market dislocation will also be much different. Specifically, there will likely be fewer distressed asset sales in this down cycle than in 2008—where investors were presented with big opportunities to buy assets at a discount. This round, strong fundamentals heading into the recession will help to stabilize pricing and reduce distress in most asset classes.
"The fundamentals for office, multifamily and industrial product heading into this downturn were very solid," Kevin Shannon, co-head of U.S. capital markets at Newmark Knight Frank, tells GlobeSt.com. "Owners, generally speaking, were more disciplined during this downturn as compared to 2008, and construction activity has been moderate. There is also no banking crisis this time around, suggesting there will be fewer opportunities to acquire distressed office, multifamily and industrial space."
However, retail and hospitality assets—which have been impacted significantly by the pandemic and mandated closures to retail businesses and travel—will see more distressed opportunities than the other real estate food groups. But, there are lessons to be learned from 2008. "Lenders though learned that "extend and pretend" was a fairly successful strategy during the last down cycle as time allowed asset values to recover; however, this lender holding strategy will be tougher for many of the distressed retail assets in need of major repurposing," says Shannon.
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