New York's Reopening Data Shows 'Many Positive Signs' for Retail Recovery

Initial data from the start of New York City’s reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic shows positive signs for retailers and other industries hit hard by shutdowns, according to local data provider Placer.ai.

Retail industry watchers are fervently tracking the market after shutdowns aimed at preventing the spread of the virus closed the doors of brick-and-mortar shops, cutting a central part of retail business. But date from New York, dating to mid-June, is offering hope for those seeking an economic rebound, according to a recent blog by Ethan Chernofsky, the vice president of marketing for the analytics start-up.

Overall retail visits in New York were down 22 percent year over year the week of June 15th, compared to visits up 5 percent year over year for the week of March 9th. However, Placer.ai noted, the June numbers “showed a marked improvement on previous weeks” and was the strongest showing for retail markets since the March 9 data.

Different markets within the retail industry are suffering more than others: Apparel shop visits are down 49.7 percent compared to this same time last year, while hardware stores like Home Depot and Lowe’s, are actually seeing a 27.3 percent boost in visits. “And lingering issues such as closed malls are going to continue to influence the visit distribution across subsectors,” the blog adds.

Despite those issues, Placer said the week of June 15th marked a “turning point” for some apparel retailers, with visits rising compared to those in recent weeks. Saks Fifth Avenue stores in particular saw a spike that week, with visits soaring to 44.5 percent year over year.

“Does this mean the brand’s troubles are over? Of course not. Does it mean that consumers are still very much interested in shopping when the opportunity presents itself and that pent up demand could have a positive short-term influence? All indications seem to point to yes,” the Placer post reads.

The start-up analytics firm highlighted the mass merchandise industry, featuring brands like Target, Costco, Walmart and BJ’s Wholesale Club, to track in the coming weeks. The blog noted that while some brands took hits, others mitigated some of those losses due to their offering essential items like groceries. BJ’s, however, “saw a unique surge during the COVID crisis that has sustained well into May and June,” with visits in June up by more than 70 percent year over year.

“New York is a critical marker for the retail sector to understand its progress towards a recovery. And there are many positive signs that indicate a rebound is en route and ‘normalcy’ could be within reach,” the Placer.ai blog concludes. “However, the unique nature of this pandemic has shown just how susceptible even the strongest retailers are to its effects. So while there are many positive signs, the idea that another lockdown could appear is certainly not beyond the realm of possibility.”