These Housing Markets Have the Highest Vulnerability During COVID-19

Numerous markets along the East Coast and in Northern Illinois are the most vulnerable during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to an examination of residential properties that are facing foreclosure or are underwater.

The report—by Irvine, California-based ATTOM Data Solutions, based on data from 406 counties across the US from the second quarter of 2020—found that 43 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to the economic impact of the pandemic sit from Connecticut to Florida, as well as around Chicago. That includes 11 counties surrounding New York City, both in New Jersey (Bergen, Essex, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Sussex and Union) and New York (Nassau, Orange, Rockland, Suffolk and Westchester), as well as five around Washington, D.C., (Charles, Prince George’s and Frederick counties in Maryland; and Spotsylvania and Stafford counties in Virginia) and four in and around Baltimore (Baltimore, Carroll, Cecil and Harford counties).

The findings are consistent with the company’s first-quarter report, which found that nearly half of the 50 most-vulnerable counties were located in New Jersey and Florida, ATTOM said.

Todd Teta, chief product officer with ATTOM Data Solutions, says that the data ”is starting to show that eight years of price gains may be coming to an end amid the economic damage flowing from the virus pandemic.”

“We see pockets around the country that appear more or less poised to withstand downward pressure on prices and other market conditions”—primarily in the West, with the exception of four counties in California, he said in the report. “Over the next few months, enough data should come in to tell us how things will most likely pan out.”

Counties’ risk is assessed based on the number of homes facing foreclosure, those with mortgage balances exceeding the estimated property value, and “the percentage of local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses,” according to the report.