Moving Stats Don’t Support Urban Exodus

Many experts have predicted an urban exodus as a result of the pandemic, but so far the data doesn’t support that theory. According to the latest research from Apartment List, the opposite is actually true. When comparing pre- and post-pandemic migration patterns, there has been an increase in moves to dense urban markets. In Los Angeles, users looking to move to the metro increased from 16.6% before the pandemic to 18.4% during the pandemic. In addition, fewer users were looking to relocate outside of the metro.

“As rents drop, the motif of ‘remote workers leaving cities for suburbs’ has dominated the conversation, but in reality it’s only one of a few different migration patterns happening right now,” Rob Warnock of Apartment List tells GlobeSt.com. “Also represented in our data are people who already live in cities and are looking to get a better deal locally, as well as renters who are now looking at cities that previously may have felt prohibitively expensive. All together, no single pattern stands out overwhelmingly, although it becomes clear to us that an all-out rejection of density isn’t taking place at the national scale.”

While there was a nominal increase in users in Los Angeles looking to move to suburban parts of the city, the biggest increase was for inbound migration to Los Angeles. “The bigger shift has been in inbound searches: people from all over the country looking for apartments in L.A.,” says Warnock. “Before the pandemic (January-March), 60% of all inbound searches came from outside the city; then from April-June that share jumped up to 66%. In light of the coronavirus, LA could be a city that more people are moving to rather than moving from.”

As for people exiting Los Angeles, the decrease was nominal and it is too soon to tell if it was indicative of a trend. “At this point, the quarter-over-quarter change is so subtle that it’s difficult to say whether this will be a sustained trend going forward. But we’ll be keeping an eye on it in the coming months,” says Warnock.

While an urban exodus hasn’t appeared yet, Warnock also doesn’t see any change in the pre-pandemic migration patterns, namely moves to more affordable markets from major metros. “I expect that the Sunbelt will remain an attractive destination, just as it has been for the past decade,” he says. “It continues to appeal to several different pandemic-related situations: people who are looking for cheaper housing, people who are looking for more physical space, people in the market to buy a home looking to take advantage of low mortgage rates.”