Will Retail Rents Ever Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels?

Retail rent collections have increased steadily in recent months after falling off of a cliff in March when the pandemic hit. In July, rent collections hit a pandemic peak at 77.2%, according to research from Datex. However, this might not be a steady climb back to pre-pandemic collection levels. Instead, rent collections could taper off before returning to pre-pandemic levels.

“The great unknown in all of this is whether this is as good as it gets until we have a vaccine, or worse, we start backsliding, and there are two fairly binary answers to this one,” Mark Sigal, managing director at Datex, tells GlobeSt.com. “The pessimistic view is that with some many retailers, and so many retail landlords economically and emotionally walloped by the first wave of COVID-19, we are moving into a ‘can’t squeeze blood out of a turnip phase’ where unfavorable infection numbers, drive consumer spending caution, a macro weakening of the economy, and massive job losses, lead to a consumer who can’t spend, and a vicious cycle ensues. Add to this the inability of the federal government to avoid politicizing the next wave of PPP loans, and it’s easy to paint some dim scenarios.”

Of course, there is also a more optimistic view. If a vaccine becomes available, confidence could quickly be restored and the economy will spring back. “The more optimistic view is that with a viable vaccine on the horizon, retailers and landlords see better days ahead, and continue to work in concert to navigate an otherwise rocky period through to a more stable one,” says Sigal. “Put another way, if you’ve made it this far, don’t give up now. Add to this that this is an election year, and so government will do what governments do in election years; namely, pump money into the economy to backstop any weakness.”

Additional waves of infection are the biggest concern for retail rent collections and retail recovery. “One risk is that mask wearing and social distancing continue to be politicized by the government, leading to surges of infections in the fall, forcing more shutdowns, economically killing retailers in the process,” says Sigal. “Two is that the government fails to approve the next wave of PPP loans, which starves retailers of needed oxygen and leads to the demise of small businesses, leading to more layoffs, and weakened consumer spending.”