Commercial Mortgage Debt Rises as Originations Fall

Commercial and multifamily mortgage outstanding debt increased in the second quarter. Data from the Mortgage Banker’s Association reveals that the level of commercial debt increased to $3.76 trillion at the end of the second quarter, and multifamily mortgage debt grew to $1.6 trillion—a 2% or $32.2 billion increase from the first quarter. While the level of mortgage debt continued to rise, new originations declined during the quarter.

Different branches of the market have experienced divergent trends in mortgage debt growth through the pandemic. Multifamily assets have accounted for 75% of activity at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the last 6 months. The agencies and MBS have the largest total share of multifamily debt at $775 billion or 48% of the market. Banks and thrifts have another 30% or $474 billion of the market and life insurance companies have $167 billion or 10% of the market. CMBS, state and local governments, ABS issues and non-farm corporate businesses account for the remainder of the market.

During the second quarter, gains were on par with each segments’ market share. The agencies and MBS saw the biggest gain with $22.9 billion or the $32.2 billion increase in outstanding debt. This represents a 3.1% increase in holdings for those organizations. Life insurance holdings increased by 1.5%, a total of $2.5 billion. REITs, on the other hand, saw a steep decline in multifamily outstanding debt. The market was down $602 million or 11.8%.

On the commercial side, commercial banks hold 39% or $1.5 trillion of commercial/multifamily mortgages, the largest share of commercial debt. Life insurance companies hold another 15% or $574 billion, and CMBS, CDO and other ABS hold 14% or $518 million.

Commercial debt levels increased by a smaller amount. Commercial banks increased their holdings by $14.6 billion, or a 1%, while life insurance companies increased debt holdings by .4% or $2.1 billion. CMBS, CDO, and other ABS issues increased by only, 3% or $1.7 billion. REIT debt holdings decreased by 3%, a sharper decline than in the multifamily market.

Overall, commercial loan originations are likely to fall by 40% compared to 2019 levels. Lenders have shifted their focus to mitigating loss and managing delinquencies. For that reason defaults have continued to remain low. In multifamily, rent collections have remained in the high 90% range, making the market a favorite for lenders in this market. However, lenders have been more selective with other asset classes, like retail and hospitality, which have continued to struggle with an expected slow recovery period.