You probably read over the last six months about a looming evictions crisis of historic scale. It's been described as a "tsunami" and an "avalanche." Some forecasters predicted as many to 30 to 40 million renters could be evicted.

What happened? Not much—and that's wonderful news. Americans will likely experience a record low number of evictions in 2020. Eviction filings since COVID-19 hit in mid-March have plunged 67% from normal levels in the 17 markets tracked by Princeton's Eviction Lab. Evictions plummeted even in cities without eviction bans. And all reliable indicators continue to show renters are (so far) paying their monthly rent at near-normal levels. This is good news not only because millions of renters haven't been displaced as feared, but also because accurate numbers lead to more targeted, more affordable policy solutions that, in turn, increase the odds of lawmakers finally approving much-needed direct aid for renters truly in need.

How did forecasters get it so wrong?