Chapter 11 filings are increasing at an alarming rate.
In September, there were 747 new commercial Chapter 11 filings, which was a 78% year-over-year increase, according to Epiq’s September 2020 bankruptcy filing statistics from its AACER business. In the first three quarters of 2020 there have been 5,529 Chapter 11 commercial filings, which is a 33% increase over the same period last year.
“After a slower August, we see an increase in Chapter 11 filings in September both month over month and year over year,” said Deirdre O’Connor, managing director of corporate restructuring at Epiq in prepared remarks. “These commercial filings are primarily small businesses that do not have access to capital or stimulus. Unfortunately, those bankruptcies will continue to rise in the current economic environment.”
O’Connor says that opportunistic investors are providing capital infusions to large companies. But even they could face problems. “However, the most over-leveraged distressed companies could succumb to a formal restructuring due to lack of credit support and overall sector decline,” he says.
The increase in bankruptcy filings is yet another indication that the economy is still suffering. Retail has been hit especially hard. Retailers to file a bankruptcy during the summer include Pier 1, J. Crew, Neiman Marcus, Stage Stores, JCPenney, Tuesday Morning, GNC, Lucky Brand, RTW Retailwinds, Brooks Brothers, Ascena (which includes Ann Taylor, LOFT, Lane Bryant, Justice, Catherines), Le Tote (which includes Lord & Taylor), Tailored Brands (which includes Men’s Wearhouse, Jos. A. Bank, Moores Clothing, K&G) and Stein Mart.
As commercial bankruptcies, retail and even office landlords could be facing a loss in rental income. That, in turn, could hinder their ability to pay their loans or force them to sell.
“Most retail tenants, like restaurants and fitness centers, will not be able to recover,” says Mark Foster, attorney at Snell & Wilmer in California. “I don’t think the landlords or their lenders are going to be able to extend and do anything. All of a sudden, you’ve got a bunch of evictions and a bunch of half-vacant buildings that owners are going to have to sell. And they’re going to have to sell at a discount.”
One temporary bright spot is the number of non-commercial bankruptcies. Chapter 13 non-commercial filings fell 43% in 2020, with 118,306 filings. That is down from 206,933 filings from the same period in 2019. Chapter 7 non-commercial filings are down 23% in September 2020 with 27,027 new filings, which is a decrease from the 34,957 filings for the same period in 2019.
Chris Kruse, senior vice president of Epiq AACER, says that is the result of regulatory programs “injecting liquidity into the market, delaying new bankruptcy filings.”