The recovery is coming, but it won't start until next year. The Real Estate Economic Forecast fall survey from the Urban Land Institute with 43 economists and analysts and 37 real estate organizations forecasts a varied recovery that will begin in 2021 and last through 2022.
Industrial and single-family assets are expected to perform the best, but the real estate market overall should holdup better than initially expected. Overall, the recession is expected to be short-lived. "The worst fears of earlier this year have mostly eased," . As of now, leading real estate economists are signaling that resilience and underlying strength will likely win out over uncertainty and risk," said William Maher, principal at Maher Strategies, in a statement.
The results of the survey, which is conducted semi-annually, expect GDP to decline 5% this year but increase again in 2021. Respondents forecast 3.6% GDP growth in 2021 and 3.2% GDP growth in 2022. The 2020 GDP loss is an improvement compared to the prior survey, which estimated a 6% fall in GDP this year. However, the previous survey was also more optimistic about GDP growth in 2021 and 2022, forecasting 3.9% and 3.6% respectively. Employment follows a similar trend. This year, the survey expects jobs loss to total 9 million, but—like GDP—job growth will begin in 2021 and 2022, growing by 3.5 million and 3 million jobs, according to the survey. By the end of 2022, unemployment could fall to 5.5%.
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