National apartment vacancy rates are rising, but a new multifamily report from Moody's Analytics REIS says that the higher rate isn't a concern. The multifamily vacancy rate increased 30 basis points this year to 5%, but the rate has remained well below the long-term average of 5.2% to 5.4%.

Two factors are helping to stabilize apartment occupancy: the relatively low COVID-19 fatality rate and national eviction moratoriums, according to the Moody's report. Although COVID-19 infections have become more severe, the death rate has remained stable throughout the pandemic with minimal impact on household population formation. In addition, the eviction moratorium has stifled household movement through most of the US.

Moody's is forecasting rising apartment vacancy through 2021, but the rate should not exceed historical peaks during economic dislocation. By the middle of next year, the report anticipates national apartment vacancy of 6.5%, significantly below the vacancy rate of 8.1% in early 2010, the current record.