Why Phoenix Multifamily Isn’t Sweating the Pandemic

Multifamily investment activity came roaring back at the end of the year in Phoenix when it was clear that the market growth hadn’t rescinded during the pandemic. If anything the fundamentals driving population and job growth—namely affordability—have only accelerated growth this year. ABI Multifamily started to see investment activity rebound significantly in the fall, and it predicts the momentum to continue through 2021.

“If you are moving at 100 miles an hour, you don’t feel bumps in the road. Right now, with the momentum that we have in Phoenix, we didn’t really feel a pull back,” John Kobierowski, senior managing partner at ABI Multifamily, tells GlobeSt.com. “If anything we likely will see more flight to Phoenix next year and more investment in multifamily.”

Despite the pandemic, Phoenix hit a new milestone for apartment construction this year with 33,000 units in planning or development. The market has also surpassed the previous construction peak. Next year, Kobierowski anticipates the same fundamentals will drive multifamily investment and new construction. “During December, groups typically start to make their decisions for the next year. I don’t expect activity to slow down for a while,” he says. “Our value growth is based on income growth, and income growth is based on job growth and population growth. Those factors continue to play out, and if they continue to happen—and I don’t see them slowing down in Phoenix—we are going to continue to see more new construction.”

The pandemic wasn’t the only potential concern for investors. The election also posed a potential concern for investors, particularly in a growing market like Arizona. “There was some concern about what might happen with capital gains under the new administration, but with the chance that we will have a divided government, the consensus is that won’t be an issue,” says Kobierowski.

Next year, Kobierowski also sees new catalysts for growth, specifically with the potential for remote work. “The remote work trend has also helped us. If your company tells you that they don’t care where you work, people are going to pick a place that they want to live rather than a place where they have to live,” he says. “More and more often, that place is becoming Phoenix.”