Downtown high rises will decline in value by 10 to 15% as companies drive increased demand for office space in more dispersed secondary markets, according to a new report by Graceada Partners. That is the latest prediction for the office market, which has been in a state of flux as the work from home trend and the migration of people out of gateway cities combine to upend fundamentals. 

For instance, national office vacancy climbed to 17.7% in the fourth quarter of 2020, with cities like New York City and San Francisco posting the largest declines. But as flexible working arrangements grow in popularity, the resulting "outpost economy" —a term coined by Graceada to describe current trends—will revamp the commercial real estate office market in both primary and secondary cities, with regional economies like Sacramento, Austin, and Charlotte experiencing continued population growth and corporate investment.  

The findings underscore growing interest in secondary cities among both professionals and US companies and echo findings released earlier this week by CBRE, which identified eleven secondary counties poised to thrive over the next decade as the CRE landscape continues to shift.