In the last downturn, some CRE investors were able to scoop up distressed assets by this point in the cycle. But so far, those conditions haven't materialized in the Covid-19 crisis, according to Real Capital Analytics.
The Global Financial Crisis started in December 2007. In Q1 2008, commercial property price growth turned negative when the RCA CPPI US National All-Property Index dropped 2.6% year-over-year.
In early 2007, distressed sales totaled less than 0.5% of commercial real estate transactions. In Q1 2008, they inched up to just under 1%. By the end of 2010, distressed sales were 20% of the total sales market, according to RCA.
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