East Coast Housing Remains Particularly Vulnerable As Pandemic Wears On

Housing markets in the Northeast and other parts of the East Coast remain most economically impacted by and at risk of further depression as the COVID-19 pandemic wears on, according to a new report by ATTOM Data Solutions. 

The report – which included 499 counties across the United States – evaluated markets as being more or less at risk depending on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances exceeding estimated property values, and the percentage of average local wages required to pay for homeownership expenses. In particular, New York City, Philadelphia and Chicago have the largest clusters of high-risk counties in the U.S., while states across the West – with the exception of California – are less vulnerable. 

New Jersey, Illinois, California, Louisiana, New York, Florida and Maryland comprised 40 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to the pandemic’s economic impacts in the fourth quarter of 2020. Eight suburban counties in the NYC metro area, four around Philadelphia, and two near Washington D.C., were included in that count, as well as six in the Chicago suburbs and two in the St. Louis metro area. Northern California accounted for five of the seven western counties in the top 50.

The U.S. housing market remains particularly vulnerable, despite rising home prices in nearly three-quarters of the country. Prices have continued their increase even while significant parts of the American economy remain shuttered and unemployment ticks up. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index finished 2020 on a particularly high note, jumping 8.4% in October and posting the strongest pace since March 2014, a full 25% above the peak reached before the Great Recession. Yet against that backdrop, many homeowners are struggling. Research from Clever Real Estate in October showed that nearly a quarter of Americans missed a mortgage payment by that point in the year during the pandemic, and half of homeowners polled said they’d run out of savings in 2020.

“Areas of the U.S. most at risk from damage connected to the Coronavirus pandemic spread out somewhat in the fourth quarter of 2020. But they still fell mainly along the East Coast, with significant pockets in certain areas, while other parts of the country seem to be less vulnerable,” said Todd Teta, chief product officer with ATTOM Data Solutions. “This report is not a sign that any area actually took a fall in the fourth quarter. It’s more a gauge of areas that may be more vulnerable if the market falters. In the coming months, much will depend on whether the country can halt the pandemic. We will continue to keep a close watch on home sales and prices to see how everything shakes out in 2021 and if changes hit different regions in different ways.”