Overall sentiment across the commercial real estate market is increasing as 2020 becomes a bad memory, with confidence sharply rebounding from historic lows recorded in the middle part of last year. The latest RCLCO Current Real Estate Market Sentiment Index has increased 22.4 points over the past six months, with respondents predicting that conditions will improve "significantly" over the next 12 months.
Concern about the state of the economy and CRE markets was previously measured at 9.2, its lowest level measured since RCLCO began recording the index at the end of the Great Recession. Yet confidence began increasing once vaccines began rolling out in the fall of 2020 and a possible end to the COVID-19 pandemic seemed within grasp, with the RMI index increasing to 31.6, a recession-level benchmark.
Approximately 61% of survey respondents believe real estate conditions will be moderately or significantly better in the next 12 months, though there's no clear consensus on the impact the Biden administration may have on markets. Respondents also indicated that most product types have moved from contractionary to expansionary phases since the last survey, with the exception of retail, office, and hospitality – all of which are expected to remain at the bottom of the cycle for at least the next year.
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