The apartment market has bifurcated during the pandemic with some markets showing resilience and improving fundamentals, and others showing severe distress. It isn't random; there is a clear patter: urban markets are hurting and suburban markets are thriving. Spencer Levy, chairman of Americas research and senior economic advisor for CBRE, called the dynamic the tale of two worlds at a recent virtual CREW San Diego event.
Central business districts are having a very bad day, he said in the event, citing a lack of price elasticity in urban cores to achieve full occupancy. But it is also more than that. "Even if pricing is cheap, people don't want to be there," he said. "Until people are back in the office, cities and central business districts will take a hit."
The government agencies have been a silver lining, providing much needed liquidity to the market. One the other hand eviction moratoriums have been darker cloud. On the one hand, people have been able to stay in their homes, but the burden has been significant for landlords. Levy said, "the single biggest risk is implementation of more rent control. California has high risk of rent control measures." He added that historically, rent control has not proven to increase supply. With the ongoing pandemic and eviction protections for tenants in place inevitably, Levy adds, "there is not a landlord/tenant judge who is likely to throw out a tenant today."
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