The burgeoning WFH trend shouldn't be the only thing troubling the office asset class, according to a new report from Green Street. Slipping job growth and an uptick in real interest rates pose significant risk to the sector, and while an increase in remote work remains enemy number one for the foreseeable future, a score of other factors are also at play.
The Green Street report notes that the outlook for job growth in office-dominant industries—likely driven at least in part by increased automation—is less favorable than in years past, and a slowdown in "TAMI" sectors (tech, advertising, media, and information industries) has further decreased office demand.
Similarly, demand for financial services office space has softened as the result of Fintech advances and passive investment management. What's more, a general trend toward increased space efficiencies is likely to go on for longer and at greater depth than previously forecast—a trend that will have the practical effect of reducing net absorption. And from a global perspective, a reduction in overseas capital for US CRE is also thinning demand.
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