Office tenants looking for the "sweet spot" to re-enter a market will likely have to move more quickly than during previous recessions, according to new research from Cushman & Wakefield. 

C&W economists say the sweet spot occurs when 75% or more of a market's peak-to-trough decline has occurred. Historically, most CBDs have seen larger rent declines and have taken longer to hit their trough than suburban submarkets, and C&W predicts that 42% of CBD submarkets are twice as likely to take more than 11 quarters to bottom out than their suburban counterparts. On average, CBD rents decline 375 bps more during recessions than non-CBD submarkets, and they also take slightly longer to hit their trough.

In previous recessions, national office asking rents didn't decline until four quarters after vacancy began to increase. Rebecca Rockey, head of Economic Analysis and Forecasting, Global Research at Cushman & Wakefield, said that trend is playing out again currently in the US, as both overall Class A asking rents ended the fourth quarter at all-time highs and national vacancy ended the year 257 bps higher than in the year prior.