The pandemic will continue to cause disruption in CRE markets as the economy recovers into 2021, according to a new analysis from Moody's Analytics REIS, with a number of transitions affecting all property types—including retail, hotel, office, industrial and multifamily. But the story, the report notes, is a local one. 

The analysis by economists David Salz and Thomas LaSalvia notes that the issue of where those transition properties are and how they'll transition is still a question mark. Prices haven't fallen enough to register real "transitions on any great scale," they say, and transaction volume has increased in the past few months.

In the affordable housing sector—one of the best-performing asset classes of the pandemic and a subclass that has outperformed even high-flying multifamily—large metro areas have seen outstanding balances of Freddie Mac loans increase by 15% year-over-year since February 2020, and average occupancies have decreased by less than 1.5%. But of those loans with occupancy declines greater than 10%, the cities of Dallas, Chicago, New York, Raleigh-Durham, and Boston stand out, the report says. And overall, average occupancy declines in loans with a greater than 10% decrease are similar.