Boise Logs 5.2% Rent Growth As Mid-Size Apartment Markets Continue To Surge

Hard-hit rental markets like San Francisco have begun to rapidly rebound as the COVID-19 pandemic turns a corner, but more affordable mid-sized markets are continuing to boom, suggesting that rental markets are beginning to reflect a new post-COVID normal.  

While apartment rents are still down 19.5% over last year’s numbers in San Francisco, prices are still up by 7% over the past two months, according to ApartmentList data. San Francisco logged a devastating 26.6% decline from March 2020 through January 2021, but since that time rents have gone up by 8.5%. And this trend is also playing out in nine of the ten cities with the sharpest year-over-year decreases tracked by the firm. And four of those cities — San Jose, Washington, D.C., Boston, and Minneapolis — have seen rents increasing for four consecutive months, according to ApartmentList.

“Rents are still well below pre-COVID levels, and it’s possible that the steep upward trajectory could level out,” the report notes. “But as of now, the rent rebound in pricey coastal superstar cities is happening sooner and more rapidly than we expected” – particularly in Boston, where prices have increased 12.4% this year.

Yet despite that recovery, mid-sized markets are still gaining steam, with rents in superstar boom towns like Boise jumping 5.2% this month alone, the largest increase among the largest 100 US cities.

“The pandemic did not necessarily start a new trend in these markets, so much as accelerate an existing one,” according to ApartmentList. “This stands in contrast to what has happened in the expensive markets discussed above, for which the rent declines of the past year were a complete aberration. Given this longer-term context, as well as the continued upward trajectory in rent trends, it seems that Boise and cities like it have yet to hit their peaks.”

ApartmentList’s national index increased by 1.9% over the past month, the largest monthly increase since the firm began recording estimates in 2017. This jump has outpaced the average growth of prior years, including pre-COVID times, and year-over-year rent growth now stands at 2.3%.

“More broadly, as vaccine distribution continues to gain momentum, we may be starting to experience the release of pent up demand from renters who had been delaying moves due to the pandemic,” the report notes. “Whereas last year’s peak moving season was halted by the pandemic, this year’s seasonal spike appears to be making up for lost time.”