Commercial real estate volume should go up, but price growth decline through 2023, predicts the Urban Land Institute.
Commercial real estate transaction volume is expected to recover relatively quickly through 2023 ($590 billion versus $500 billion in 2021). Last year, volume fell by almost 30% in 2020 to $427 billion from a post-Great Financial Crisis peak in 2019 of $598 billion. Expectations for CMBS issuance is $70 billion in 2021, rising to $85 billion in 2022 and $90 billion in 2023, both of which exceed the 20-year average of $82 billion.
However, commercial real estate price growth as measured by the RCA Commercial Property Price Index is expected to remain below 2020's 5.2% for all three years, dropping to 4.2% in 2021 and increasing to 5% in 2022 and 5% in 2023.
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