2020 Migration was Largely to Nearby Suburbs

While there was much attention paid to people fleeing large cities last year, a recent report from Newmark shows that many just relocated to nearby suburbs.

Overall, the US Postal Service processed just 0.3% more change of address (COA) requests from 2019. In 2019, 5.2% of all COAs were out-of-state moves. In 2020, that number jumped to 5.9%. That translates to 237,000 more COA requests.

Markets on the West Coast illustrate this story of suburban migration. In San Francisco county, there were nearly 56,000 more COA requests by people leaving the county than arriving. After tabulating census numbers, Newmark says this decline is roughly 6.3% of the population.

A large percentage of these departures, 84.2%, were to local areas. San Mateo County attracted the largest percentage of migration—31.2%. That was followed by Marin County (27.6%) and Alameda County (21.3%).

In Santa Clara County (San Jose), there were 29,000 outgoing COA requests. Newmark says 72.8% of those moves were to the immediate Bay Area. San Benito County or California’s Central Valley drew 23.0% of those COA’s.

In Southern California, there were 106,000 more COAs for people leaving Los Angeles County than arriving. Newmark says this is a 1.1% decline in population. Eighty-three percent of these people moved to other areas in Southern California.

San Bernardino County led the way, drawing 30.2 of COBs. Orange County (17.6%), Ventura County (16.8%0 and the Bakersfield area (15.8%) followed.

Newmark also pointed out that Southern Californians from Los Angeles, San Diego and Orange County moved inland, searching for affordability. This isn’t a new trend, but the pandemic accelerated it. Riverside County saw 21,000 incoming COAs with migration. The county drew 36.8% of COAs from San Diego.

Moving further north. Seattle and Portland also experienced out-migration, though Newmark says it was “hardly an exodus.”

In Seattle’s King County, there were 32,000 more outgoing than incoming COA requests. The largest percentage of those, 71.5%, landed in Snohomish County. Another 25.8% relocated to Pierce County and Southern suburbs. Kitsap County attracted 1.8% of movers from King County.

In Portland, Oregon, 96% of COAs stayed in the area. In the Oregon suburbs, Clackamas County (57.9%) and Washington County (35.8%) netted the most COAs. Clark County, Washington also landed 1.0% of those urbanites leaving The Rose City.

Even though 2020 is over, expect migration to continue this year as we move into a post-pandemic semblance of normalcy.

About 56% of renters say they’ll relocate in 2021, and 22% of those surveyed by multifamily property management software provider Entrata say they moved to a bigger apartment with more space last year.