Inflation is the current hot mess controversy of the moment among economists—and, as a result, US business. The concern: trillions in fiscal stimulus from the government and a dovish monetary policy from the Fed in place since the Great Recession could fuel a wave of pent-up demand from millions emerging from pandemic isolation, causing a rush of inflation not seen in decades.
Could that happen? Possibly. Economists are sharply divided on the topic, but it helps to remember that the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which also pumped trillions into the economy, saw not a hiccough of inflation.
The important thing for commercial real estate to realize is that inflation isn't monolithic. Rather, different aspects of commerce can feel vastly different effects. Some of the concern is the flip side of what many in real estate thought a year ago.
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