Remote Work Can Be Offshored. Here's How That Would Play Out

There have been a lot of questions about the viability of cities amid the push for remote work. A new report from Citi and the University of Oxford turns that proposition on its head by noting that remote work could be offshored. The remaining innovation-led activity will, by necessity, have to be done in-person in offices that are located in cities.

The report finds that the potential for professional services jobs to be done remotely and cheaper overseas would be the start of a foundational shift in developed economies, where the future of work could be based on innovation, exploration and creative thinking. Those tasks require face-to-face interaction and geographic proximity.

“Jobs that can be done remotely can often also be automated and offshored, meaning that occupations that center on the kind of sporadic interactions that drive innovation will become an ever-growing share of the workforce in advanced economies,” says report author Dr. Carl Benedikt Frey, director of the Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Work at the University of Oxford, in a prepared statement.

In April 2020, at the height of the pandemic, almost two-thirds of economic activity in the US was being done remotely. While that percentage will drop, as much as 20% of work could be done remotely, leading to a 5% productivity gain.

While productivity may rise, the report says that creativity and innovation diminish when people work in isolation. Ultimately progress and productivity will stall. As remote work becomes more popular, professional service jobs are being split into more automatable tasks, like clerical or accounting work, or offshorable tasks, like payroll management and IT support.

As some of these jobs are automated or sent offshore, new employment opportunities should increase in knowledge industries, like technology, science or consulting. Specifically, the jobs created will open for roles like designing new technology products or service algorithms. Those roles rely on in-person collaboration, unplanned meetings, and informal socializing as much as they do hard work.

“Cities are going to be more important as hubs of the collaboration and innovation at the foundation of developed economies,” Frey said. “Walkable streets, bars, restaurants and cafes facilitate serendipitous meetings and help us identify problems that need solutions. Every new ‘knowledge industry’ job in a city also creates demand for five new service jobs that can’t be offshored or automated like teachers, healthcare workers and cleaners.”

The Citi and University of Oxford report isn’t the only source predicting that collaboration will help bring people back to offices.

JLL Chief Economist Ryan Severino has noted that younger workers (namely millennials) typically move to dense urban cores to work in an environment that fosters collaboration, facetime with leadership teams, and networking on a much more personal level. Dr. Tori Kerr, managing director at Hines, predicted we’ll see a more “we” than “me” model going forward, as spaces morph to give employees a tangible reason to leave their homes and commute into an office.