Pandemic-era fears over the death of the department store were largely overblown, at least according to a new analysis from Placer.ai. Kohl's and Dillard's posted traffic declines of just 8.3% and 3.5% respectively in May 2021 when compared to 2019 numbers, while Macy's and Nordstrom showed declines of 16.8% and 14.3%, dramatically narrowing the visit gap the brands experienced during the throes of COVID-19.

"While the sector has certainly experienced its fair share of challenges, the overarching narrative of doom and gloom seems to miss out on the lingering strength and potential of leading players," the firm's Ethan Chernofsky says. In fact, Nordstrom and Macy's—often held up as examples of the challenges facing the department store sector—had their strongest months in May since the onset of the pandemic's impact on retail. 

Chernofsky predicts the coming months may be even better for the sector, especially as the back to school season looms and states like New York and California fully reopen. Kohl's is a frontrunner here, he says, but even mall based department stores may post better numbers than expected.