Restaurants Recovery Continued on ‘Slow and Steady’ Uptick in Q2

Consumer spending and restaurant visits are up over last year, but still remain below pandemic levels as the industry grapples with how to move past the ever-evolving COVID-19 crisis.

Data from The NPD Group shows that consumer spending at restaurants was up 32% in the second quarter and flat compared to the same period in 2019. Visits, whether in or off-premises, went up by 22% over 2020 numbers and were down 7% over Q2 2019 numbers.

Quick-service restaurants, which represent 81% of all visits in the US, gained 15% in Q2 year-over-year, and declined 5% compared to the second quarter of 2019.

“Throughout the pandemic, QSR restaurants, particularly chains, benefitted from well-established off-premises services, like carry-out, drive-thru, and delivery,” NPD notes in a report breaking down the data. “During the second quarter in 2020, which covered the height of the pandemic lockdowns and restaurant dine-in restrictions, QSR off-premises orders increased by +9% over the same quarter in 2019, driven by solid growth in drive-thru and delivery orders. In this year’s second quarter, off-premises grew by +5% compared to a year ago, driven by gains in carry-out and delivery orders.”

Unsurprisingly, full service restaurants “bore the brunt of COVID dine-in restrictions” and stood to benefit the most from the easing of those restrictions this year. Total FSR visits, both dine-in and off-premises, increased by 60% year-over-year in Q2 and were down -17% compared to second quarter 2019. Dine-in, or on-premises, visits to FSRs increased by +214%.

“The US restaurant recovery is underway, but it will take time for it to return to pre-pandemic levels fully,” says David Portalatin, NPD food industry advisor and author of Eating Patterns in America.  “Commercial restaurants overall remain below 2019 traffic levels. The QSR segment, ideally suited to today’s new consumer realities, is performing very near pre-pandemic traffic levels with dollar volumes well ahead of that pace. On the other hand, FSRs still face headwinds such as dining room capacity restrictions in some places. Even where restrictions are minimal, labor shortages may keep operators from realizing their full operational capacity.”

The industry underwent serious shifts last year, with a litany of well-known chains (like Ruby Tuesday’s and California Pizza Kitchen) filing for bankruptcy protection. Experts predict unit closures will continue as the number of distressed restaurants increase: Fitch restaurant bankruptcy studies indicate bankruptcy filers closed 25% of units on average.