SFR Default Risk Declines As Unemployment Lessens
However the risk score is still elevated due to the pandemic.
The average default risk score for single-family rental homes declined by almost 16% from 43.6 to 36.7 in the nation’s 100 largest counties based on property count in six months, according to RealtyTrac Rental Property Risk Report.
The RealtyTrac Rental Property Risk Report gauges the relative default risk of single-family rental homes using a scale of 1-100.
In addition, the ratio of counties at above-average default risk also declined. But half of all counties remained at elevated risk levels, with 45% having an above-average DRS. Six months ago, that percentage was 53%.
“We’re seeing a decrease in the RealtyTrac Default Risk Score due to declining unemployment rates, one of the three criteria we analyze for our score,” said RealtyTrac executive vice president Rick Sharga in a prepared statement. “But even with the decrease, the risk for default among these rental property owners is still very real, especially in California and Florida.”
The county with the highest risk profile changed over the past six months. While Mohave County in Arizona had a score of 77.2 in February 2021, New York County in New York was the most at-risk recently, with a score of 73.7 compared with the previously top-ranked.
On the other end of the spectrum, Salt Lake County in Utah continued to be the lowest-risk county with a score of 6.9. That was a decline from its previous score of 17.2.
Five counties California and Florida account for 36% of the top 25 highest risk counties. In addition, eight counties in Florida and seven counties in California accounted for a third (33%) of the highest risk counties.
The metropolitan statistical areas among the top ten highest risk counties include New York, N.Y., Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C., Bakersfield-Delano, Calif., Dayton, Ohio, Cape Coral–Fort Myers, Fla., Riverside-San Bernardino- Ontario, Calif., Ocala, Fla., Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash. and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas.
“As the economy recovers, it makes sense to see a lower default risk for rental property owners,” Sharga said. “But many landlords still need financial relief after the government’s 18-month eviction ban, so it’s critical for state governments to begin distributing the $45 billion that has been set aside to cover missed rent payments for tenants whose income was impacted by the pandemic.”
Meanwhile, rents are surging in this category.
The June single-family rent increase of 7.5% was the highest year-over-year hike since at least January 2005, according to the CoreLogic Single Family Rent Index.
The increase was also five times that of the hike a year earlier. Rent growth is running well above pre-pandemic levels when compared with 2019, the index showed.