People Unconcerned About Climate Change When Deciding Where to Live

Climate change appears not to be affecting where people live, according to a new Redfin report.

“The US counties with the largest share of homes facing high heat, drought, fire, flood and storm risk saw their populations grow from 2016-2020 due to migration, while the counties with the smallest share of homes facing climate risk largely saw their populations decline,” said the study.

To help prove the point, Redfin noted during that time the 50 US counties with the largest share of homes facing high heat risk had an increase in population from migration by an average of 4.7% during that time while, the counties with the largest percentage of homes facing high drought, fire, flood and storm risk experienced average population growth of 3.5%, 3%, 1.9% and 0.4%,

“People have been gravitating to places with severe climate risk because many of these areas are relatively affordable, have lower property taxes, more housing options or access to nature,” said Redfin Economist Sebastian Sandoval-Olascoaga. “For a lot of people, these benefits seem to outweigh the dangers of climate change.

However, he warned they could get burned in the long term from lower property values or face considerable difficulty getting their properties insured against environmental disasters as natural disasters become more frequent.

The propensity for people to still buy in climate risk areas may be shown by the fact the five counties with the most second quarter condo transactions were in southern, coastal regions:  Palm Beach County (West Palm Beach), FL (10,454 condo sales); Miami-Dade County, FL (9,396 sales); Los Angeles County, CA (7,228 sales); Broward County (Fort Lauderdale), FL (6,890 sales) and San Diego County, CA (4,740 sales).

Those numbers came from the ATTOM database.

In a separate report, ATTOM said median condo prices in 43 of the 86 oceanfront counties with enough data to analyze, or 50%, exceeded the national median condo value of $305,000 in the second quarter of 2021.

The report added median condominium prices increased during the second quarter of 2021 by at least 20%, measured year over year, in slightly more than half of the oceanfront counties analyzed.

Several months after Hurricane Michael caused more than $6 billion in damages and killed seven in Florida in 2018, the popularity of that market raised eyebrows with Spencer Glendon, a senior fellow at the Woods Hole Research Center and a former partner and director of investment research at Wellington Management.

“No one should be lending for 30 years in most of Florida,” he said at an investment conference in New York, according to Bloomberg. “During that time frame, insurance will disappear and terminal values”—future resale income— “will shrink. I tell my parents that it’s fine to rent in Florida, but it’s insane to own or to lend.”