Led By Multifamily, CRE Deal Volume Skyrockets 74% in July

Overall deal volume was up 74% year-over-year and well over the average set across each July since 2005, according to Real Capital Analytics data, with apartment sales constituting 35% of all investment. Apartment pricing also gained the most ground last month, with prices of assets up 13.5% year-over-year.

Multifamily investment volume has skyrocketed this year, netting a 34% quarter-over quarter increase, according to CBRE. In response, cap rates have decreased, and some bidders are aggressively pushing up pricing as inflation fears persist.

Household formation has also risen significantly over the past few months to a historic peak and that rise, coupled with the high cost of homeownership in most larger US metros, has pushed apartment rents up 11% so far this year. That’s more than double the rate of inflation and is triple the growth measured by Apartment List in the years leading up to the pandemic.  Rents are up more than 30% since March in “Zoom boom towns” like Boise, Bend, and Spokane.

At the same time, according to Apartment List, vacancies have decreased by 36%. While some analysts note that the rate of rent growth may be slowing as vacancies bottom out,  “a brief cooling period this winter is unlikely to reverse much of the dramatic price gains we are witnessing this summer,” Apartment List researchers note. “Prices going into 2022 will assuredly be higher than they were going into 2021.”

Buoyed by suburban deal activity, the office sector constituted 26% of sales volume in July. But “sales of CBD properties remain muted because of uncertainty about office space use in urban areas, according to RCA’s most recent US Capital Trends report. The suburban office price index went up 11.7%, while the CBD index went down 4.6%.

Overall, the US National All-Property Index increased 11.8% year-over-year.