The beleaguered lodging sector is continuing a slow slog to recovery as revenue per available room, or RevPAR, increases alongside occupancy upticks – but analysts predict a full recovery will likely take another three years.

Recent projections from Fitch Ratings say the sector's RevPAR recovery "remains on track, despite the recent sharp uptrend in coronavirus infections." The firm has raised its expectation for 2021 RevPAR to 68% of the 2019 pre-pandemic numbers, up from a  previous forecast of 62%, and says that metric should fully recovery by 2025.

Fitch forecasts assume a "stronger than expected" spring and summer leisure travel season this year, which an expected deceleration in the second half of the year as a potential rise in infections threatens fall travel plans. Lower price point and midscale properties are outpacing luxury segments, particularly since international and business travel remain stagnated.