Multifamily Transaction Volume Recovery Is A 'Tale of Two Coasts'

The San Francisco market has recovered more than 80% of pre-pandemic multifamily transaction volume, in what one firm is calling the ultimate “comeback story.”

A recent analysis by Reonomy notes that “multifamily investors are betting on the continued affluence of San Francisco,” despite rent declines in some Bay Area cities that are among the biggest in the US. While San Francisco and Oakland saw the biggest declines in apartment rents from the beginning of the pandemic, rents in San Francisco have climbed 17% from January to July of this year.  Reonomy also posits that the rise in deal flow may reflect the small number of projects with at least five units that are underway in the region: according to US Census Bureau data, only 154 such projects have received permits this year, which “could be an incentive for multifamily investors if housing demand is outstripping supply.”

Seattle follows San Francisco, with a 72.4% recovery of pre-pandemic transaction volume. Los Angeles rounds out the list of top three West Coast markets, with a 64% rebound rate that beats all East Coast counterparts.

On the East Coast, Boston leads the way in transaction volume recovery, with the city’s knowledge economy set to outperform the US in terms of GDP growth over time. On the flip side, the New York City market gained the smallest amount of pre-pandemic deal volume at 56%, followed by Washington, DC at 60.6%. However, NYC rent growth has gone up 23% so far this year.

“In terms of returning to pre-pandemic multifamily transaction volume, it’s mostly a tale of two coasts,” the report notes.