Over the last few years, bolstered by an unprecedented boom in e-commerce and retail sales, the industrial sector has posted historically high demand and supply growth. And that's led some analysts to question how long the ride can last for the sector that's relatively unaccustomed to such a meteoric rise. In short, some are wondering whether the current boom is a bubble or something more sustainable.
A recent report from YardiMatrix predicts that retail sales, housing starts and personal income will all likely continue to grow at a rapid clip until the middle of the decade, which will allow industrial demand to "continue unabated" for at least a few more years. The firm's forecast calls for an annual increase in total industrial stock of between 2 and 2.3% over the next five years, netting between 350 and 370 million square feet of new space each year for a total of 1.8 billion square feet of new stock. And while more than 290 million square feet has been added to the sector over the last three years, the predicted rise in space still may not be enough to meet demand.
The growth in demand has been led primarily by an explosive uptick in e-commerce sales, which reached a quarterly record of $222 billion in the second quarter of this year, or 13.3% of all retail sales, according to US Census Bureau data. By way of comparison, online sales accounted for just 4.2% of all retail sales in the first quarter of 2010 and just 0.8% in Q1 2000. And that growth has fueled demand for high-tech logistics facilities in population hubs to allow same-day or next-day shipments and to accommodate a growing commitment of third-party logistics providers to AI and robotics fulfillment mechanisms.
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