Retail sales are expected to post gains of between 3 and 5%, with 29% of US consumers saying they'll spend more this holiday season than in years past.

"It's going to be a hybrid holiday this year, blending the return of a celebratory feeling with the now normalized pandemic lifestyle," said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for NPD Group. "We expect the consumer's sustained propensity to spend will carry through the traditional November and December shopping period. However, shopping in the here-and-now, and other spending styles that have emerged during the pandemic will bring additional growth to the expanded October-into-January shopping season this year."

NPD predicts holiday spending will be up 3% during November and December, and 5% when the season expands to include October and early January.  Responses to NPD's recent holiday purchase intentions study show that while two-thirds of those polled say their 2021 holiday shopping season will be more like last year's than pre-pandemic seasons, overall consumers are more optimistic than they were in 2020.