These Housing Markets Are at Elevated Risk from Pandemic Fallout

New Jersey, Illinois and Delaware had the highest concentrations of the most at-risk markets for the ongoing Coronavirus pandemic in the third quarter, according to a new ATTOM report.

The report spotlighted county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to damage from the COVID-19 crisis that is still endangering the US economy.

The biggest clusters were found in the New York City and Chicago areas while the West remained far less exposed.

Three States Comprise Half of Top 50

The third-quarter trends, which generally continued second-quarter patterns, revealed that New Jersey, Delaware and Illinois had 26 of the 50 counties most exposed to the potential housing-related impacts of the pandemic. 

They included eight counties in the Chicago metropolitan area, six near New York City, along with two of Delaware’s three counties. Three Philadelphia suburban counties made the top-50 list.

Elsewhere, the rest of the 50 most vulnerable counties were scattered mainly along the East Coast states. Among them, only Florida had more than three counties in the top 50.

Just two western counties, both in California, made it into the top 50 during the third quarter of this year, while the West again had the highest concentration of markets considered least vulnerable to pandemic-related damage.

Markets were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values and the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced houses or condominiums. 

The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Rankings were based on a combination of those three categories in 570 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze in second and third quarters of 2021. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the three ranks. See below for the full methodology.

Cases Down, But Pandemic Still Poses a Threat to Economy

The third-quarter patterns, showing the most and least at-risk markets, emerged as the national housing market remained super-heated, continuing its decade-long boom, even as other major sectors of the US economy only gradually rebounded from damage caused by the pandemic that hit in early 2020. Median single-family home prices continued soaring more than 10 percent on an annual basis across much of the country during the third quarter of this year, as homeowner equity kept improving.

“There’s growing reason to think the Coronavirus pandemic may finally be heading into the history books as case numbers have dropped significantly in the past month or so,” said Todd Teta, chief product officer with ATTOM, in prepared remarks. “But it still poses a significant threat to the economy, with some housing markets in pockets of the country remaining at higher risk than others.

“It’s important to stress that this doesn’t mean that any one area faces imminent danger, especially given how well the housing market has avoided major problems during the pandemic. Rather, some are more at risk than others. We will continue watching prices, affordability, distressed property counts and other measures to gauge the risk, as long as the pandemic remains a big issue facing the country.”