Retailers Look Forward to More Robust Crowds This Thanksgiving Weekend

The National Retail Federation is expecting Thanksgiving weekend holiday shopping to be up this year but still lagging the Thursday to Monday period in 2019.

Two-thirds of consumers surveyed by NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics in early November said they expected to shop during that period which would bring shoppers to a total of 158.3 million people, up from 156.6 million last year but still below the 165.3 million in pre-pandemic 2019.

While Black Friday isn’t the one-day event it once was, NRF said about two-thirds of shoppers that weekend (108 million) will be buying in stores or online that day this time.

With the easing of the pandemic, 65% of shoppers are likely to do so in brick-and-mortar stores, up from 50% last year while 64% are likely to visit retailers on Black Friday, up from 51% last year.

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said consumers are starting earlier than ever to be sure they can get what they want, when they want it, at a price they want to pay, noting this year some consumers started shopping for Christmas as early as Halloween.

Close to half of shoppers (46%) told NRF they started holiday buying earlier this year than they typically do with 28% claiming they completed purchasing everything on their lists by early November. The 28% is a substantial increase from the 18% in 2011.

In many ways it is not a hard lift to top last year’s shopping metrics: The pandemic decidedly took its toll in 2020. During the week of Nov. 23, 2020, which included Thanksgiving and Black Friday weekend, visits were down 25% for the overall retail sector.