The economy will continue to grow in 2022 and 2023, according to Richard Barkham, global chief economist, head of global research and head of Americas research for CBRE. In a recent CBRE webinar, Barkham offered an optimistic outlook for strong economic fundamentals next year and beyond, predicting that the economy would grow above trend at about 4.7% in 2022. "That is quite strong. We are looking at very good demand conditions," he said.
Three factors are supporting the economic recovery out of the pandemic, and driving the outsized GDP growth. Fiscal and monetary stimulus is at the top of that list. "The monetary expansion last year created positive business and consumer confidence, which prevented the economy from going into a tailspin of negative sentiment and laid the foundation or growth," said Barkham. "It also supported consumer incomes, which was crucial to the multifamily sector."
While the stimulus has dried up, the impact has not. Plus, more fiscal expansion and government spending is coming—a good sign for the recovery. "The effects linger in the US economy, both the government spending and the low interest rates remain supportive of economic growth," says Barkham. "With the Build Back Better agenda, there is more fiscal expansion to come, and that will create positive sentiment. We see these factors staying strong and continuing to drive the economy in 2022 and 2023."
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