Economic experts agree that the recovery will continue through 2022 and 2023, producing outsized growth of 4.7% next year. While there are a lot of positive trends supporting growth, there are three risks that could derail the economic recovery. During a 2022 outlook webinar, Richard Barkham, global chief economist, head of global research and head of Americas research for CBRE outlined his top concerns for 2022.
The first threat should be no surprise to anyone: the COVID variants. First, Delta variant came, and now a new variant, Omicron, could bring another wave of infections that could result in stalled reopening plans. "We don't know yet what that holds," said Barkham. "The early evidence suggests that while it is more infectious, it is less deadly, and the evidence is beginning to emerge that the vaccine still provides mitigation effects on the severity of the virus."
That's good news. If the variant is less likely to cause serious illness and the vaccines provide some level of protection, the new variant won't interfere with economic gains. Our current view is that the Omicron won't be any more serious than the Delta variant, meaning that it is not going to derail the economy," says Barkham.
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