Sentiment in the CRE community is clearly on the decline—and for good reason—but the Omicron variant's gradual fade, as well as the rollback of government restrictions across Europe, should give CRE investors cause for optimism in 2022, according to Cushman & Wakefield's chief economist.
"Just weeks into 2022, we have reasons to be cautiously optimistic, which bodes well for the property markets," Kevin Thorpe says in a new report. "In several global markets, Omicron has entered a seemingly sustained pattern of plateau and decline. In Europe, some of the first markets hit by the new strain, governments are starting to roll back restrictions and mandates, ushering in a new phase of a return to something closer to pre-pandemic life. With many calling for COVID-19 to be treated as endemic, we're optimistic that the disruption we've seen in markets across the world will further abate in 2022."
The pandemic will continue to loom large, of course, but rising vaccination rates "may" allow the pandemic to shift toward a more endemic form this year, which would then in turn mitigate further disruption to the economy. Just over 60% of the world's population is partially vaccinated, while 50.4% is fully vaccinated as of January 18. And while the global seven-day moving average of case rates is on the rise, new deaths are declining.
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