Nearly two-thirds of panelists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics predict a downside risk to US economic growth in 2022, according to the organization's most recent survey.

Results from the NABE Outlook Survey, which has compiled economic predictions since 1965, show that experts overwhelmingly view inflation as a key role in risk to the economic outlook—and 77% of those surveyed suggest a wage price spiral is "either already occurring or will be a major risk in 2022." 

"NABE Outlook Survey panelists' projections for inflation in 2022 are significantly higher than those in the December 2021 survey," said NABE President David Altig, executive vice president and director of research, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. "They see a risk that inflation will remain higher than previously expected over the next three years, coming largely from the labor market. More than two-thirds of survey respondents cite rising wages as a risk factor."