Apartment demand will rise at a more moderate pace through 2035 as the possibility of a "major recession" looms long-term, a soon-to-be-released study by the National Multifamily Housing Council reveals. 

The analysis, presented at the recent MHNC Research Forum in Denver by real estate finance professor Norm Miller, predicts that demand will rise somewhere between 25 and 30% lower than prior forecasts. He attributes the change to "almost zero population growth" as well as low immigration levels, but also to the long-term economic outlook. While inflation and economic contraction pose near-term risks, Miller also predicts a recession by 2029 or 2030 because of the federal deficit and growth in Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare entitlements.

Migration trends will also continue to loom large, the research shows, with cities like Dallas, Houston, Charleston, Austin, and Phoenix predicted to come out on top. Miller says metros with better city management, as well a strong tech and life sciences sector, will fare best.  The predicted losers? Cleveland, Detroit, New Orleans, St. Louis and Chicago.