There's no denying that the WFH trend is leading to higher vacancy rates in the office sector, but according to a trio of analysts from Moody's, "there's more nuance than meets the eye." 

Data from Kastle Systems shows that physical office usage hit 40.5% nationally last month, the highest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.  The physical utilization rate has been climbing since then, save a few dips related to the outbreak of new variants.  And by the first quarter of this year, many large employers began implementing return-to-office plans.

"As these plans ramp up, we expect office physical utilization to climb at least in the short run," write Moody's Analytics researchers Xiaodi Li, Victor Calanog and Kevin Fagan.  "However, a multitude of surveys and early indications from initial post-COVID-19 work arrangements, it is likely that some workers will average around two days less in the office, which may ultimately form somewhat of a fuzzy ceiling at around 60%, with continued wide variance by office market, firm industry, and individual job type."