When things are tough and a player's performance takes a tumble, coaches send in a substitute. That's exactly what consumers are doing under the pressure of the highest inflation rates in 40 years.

It's called, aptly enough, the substitution effect by economists. When finances are tough for people, they trade down in price by substituting a cheaper choice. That's happening in basics, which raises the question of how long it can be before consumers look for cheaper digs because they can't afford escalating rents or housing prices.

Consumer confidence in current conditions and future expectations is considerably lower than even the early worst times of the pandemic in April 2020, according to Morning Consult's regular Consumer Confidence Dashboard survey series. And as JP Morgan Chase noted a couple of months ago, "Facing the most rapid price increases since the early 1980s, many US households are facing difficult choices, including whether to change purchasing habits or dig into savings." If fuel, rent, and food prices kept rising, the bank said before those prices did exactly that, "we might see sustained changes in household spending."