QSR Foot Traffic Suggests Inflation May Be Slowing Spending

Visits to certain categories of quick-service restaurants are down, suggesting inflation may be tempering consumer spending.

New data from Placer.ai reveals that while year-over-year visits to burger leaders like McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King are up, year-over-three-year visits are down. The firm’s Shira Petrack notes that while Placer.ai’s numbers don’t include all drive-thru and delivery orders, “May 2022 Yo3Y foot traffic to the leading QSR burger brands underperformed offline visits trends to the wider fast food and QSR category.”

McDonald’s is leading the big three, with Yo3Y in April 2022 up by 6.3% and May 2022 Yo3Y visits up by 3.8%. The company has also shown the strongest year over year growth with monthly year over year foot traffic consistently up by double digits each month—all against the backdrop of a shrinking overall store footprint. Meanwhile, foot traffic to Wendy’s and Burger King in May was down 12.1% and 12.4%, respectively, year-over-three years. 

“While their YoY numbers are positive, the growth is not as significant as might be expected given the comparisons to the unique environment in 2021,” Petrack says.

With regards to Burger King, some of the drop in visits is likely due to store fleet consolidation. Burger King has been closing underperforming stores since 2019 as parent company RBI focuses on international growth. But visits per venue have also been down, with May 2022 visits per venue 10.4% lower than in May 2019, which means that brand’s rightsizing is not yet over.

As for Wendy’s, Petrack says low numbers could be partially attributed to sluggish return-to-office plans for a company that’s invested heavily in breakfast service.

On the brighter side, smaller regional burger chains are posting impressive numbers. Monthly Yo3Y visits to In-N-Out Burger, Whataburger, SONIC Drive-In, and White Castle in May 2022 grew by 38.5%, 14.0%, 20.8%, and 8.5%, respectively, “significantly overperforming the wider fast food & QSR category, which was down 0.6%,” Petrack says. 

“This may indicate that the burger leaders’ subdued foot traffic numbers do not necessarily reflect a waning demand for QSR,” she notes. “Rather, as more and more people look to reign in unnecessary spending, consumers may be limiting their overall spending and this category is able to take advantage of a wider percentage of overall QSR visits.”

Foot traffic for the chicken quick-service category was mixed, with Popeyes posting impressive year over three-year growth, Chick-fil-A staying consistent with pre-COVID levels and KFC visits slumping significantly. Conversely, the Tex-Mex category is outperforming, with Chipotle posting increases in monthly foot traffic up both YoY and Yo3Y every month of this year thus far.

“Both Taco Bell and Chipotle have been leaning into digital orders and drive thrus to fuel growth,” Petrack says. “Their impressive foot traffic numbers prove once more that online and offline success do not need to come at the expense of each other. Instead, a well-executed omnichannel dining strategy leverages the strengths of each channel to create a larger whole.”