After Steady Improvement, Delinquency Rates Tick Higher
Continued erosion in the office sector is part of the problem.
Delinquency rates for commercial mortgages across property types increased in the first quarter, thanks to continued erosion in the office sector.
Research from Trepp shows that concerns about the sector continue to increase, as the delinquency rate rose over the past few quarters in what the firm calls a “delayed reaction” to low office occupancy rates during the pandemic. The office delinquency rate rose from 1.3% in Q4 to 1.8% in Q1, and Trepp says the sector “will bear a closer watch through 2022 and beyond, as leases roll in the coming months and loans come up for refinancing.” Risk ratings for office loans have increased, with lenders in the Mid-Atlantic region expressing “elevated concerns” about risk across the three largest loan types. New York largely accounts for the region’s high proportion of criticized loans, at 31.7%.
The highest delinquency rates are in lodging and retail, but there’s a caveat: the retail rate has been trending downward since the fourth quarter of 2020, while lodging declined in the fourth quarter of last year. And the multifamily delinquency rate was flat at 0.8%, while industrial delinquency clocked in at 0.4%, up from 0.2% in Q4 2021.
Overall, the delinquency rate rose to 0.89% from 0.87% in Q4. And “while the uptick is slight, it is noticeable after the previous pattern of steady improvement,” according to Trepp. The serious delinquency rate is also improving, falling by four basis points to 0.65%.
New loan originations also fell in the first quarter, after increasing significantly in Q4. Industrial leads the way, outperforming the average quarterly volume in 2019 by 17%, and Trepp says investors and lenders are continuing to commit capital to the sector. Multifamily also remains “a safe sector,” according to Trepp, with Q1 originations matching the average 2019 pace.