Repricing is happening across every property sector, and no asset class appears immune. But the non-core lodging sector faces perhaps the highest potential risk, as the asset class is closely tied to the overall economy, according to Green Street. 

The firm lowered its overall estimates for near-term rents, occupancy and NOI growth for core property sectors as of the middle of this year, and its Commercial Property Price Index for the month of June shows that property values have dropped by nearly 5%. But in spite of rising inflation, Green Street predicts just a "mild recession" that will be reflected in moderating employment growth in the fourth quarter.

Still, rental and occupancy rates, as well as investment sales transaction volume, are almost immediately impacted during an economic shift, according to Michael Knott, Green Street's US head of REIT Research, with some property sectors feeling inflation's impact more than others. Namely, he says, the non-core lodging sector faces the highest potential risk since it's tied so closely to the economy.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2025 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.