Real GDP slumped by 0.9% in the second quarter at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, marking the second consecutive quarter of negative growth. But despite that, experts from Cushman & Wakefield maintain the declines are "not indicative of a current recession."
One of the top reasons? A booming job market and other key labor trends, which economists at the firm say are "crucial in understanding inflection points in the business cycle." Unemployment held steady in June at 3.6% for the fourth month in a row, with payroll employment increasing by 372,000 net jobs.
"Every recession dating back to 1947 has been characterized by an increase in the unemployment rate during the first six months of the downturn, with the smallest increase being 0.3 ppt in 1973," Cushman's Rebecca Rockey, James Bohnaker and Rob Miller note in a new analysis. "So far this year, we have seen the unemployment rate decline by 0.3 ppt, so recent jobless trends are highly inconsistent with recessionary periods…Those suggesting that we are currently in a recession may point to the rise in initial unemployment claims over the past several weeks, and while this could be a precursor for more widespread layoffs in the future, it is more likely a reflection of job-cut announcements by a few hard-hit sectors such as technology companies struggling with plummeting stock values."
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