The on-time collection rate for the Sun Belt, a region that's increasingly viewed as a multifamily investor darling in the wake of COVID-19, has underperformed the rate in units outside the region for five straight months, according to the most recent Independent Landlord Rental Performance Report from Chandan Economics.

Cities like Austin and Dallas, as well as locations throughout the South and Florida, have continued to reap the benefits of in-migration patterns from workers leaving higher-cost, typically coastal states over the past few years. But "with the Sun Belt's growing success, there is some concern that markets are re-pricing more quickly than some existing local residents can handle, especially low-income renters," the Chandan report notes. "The inflows of relatively high-earning renters—a trend aided by increased work- from-home adoption—may impact affordability for existing residents."

Chandan's August first estimates show on-time collections at 78.4% for Sun Belt cities and at 80.3% for non-Sun Belt markets, with the performance spread widening to 183 bps. Sun Belt markets are also seeing the highest rent increases across the US, with cities like Phoenix, Tampa, Atlanta and Miami posting double-digit annual rent inflation numbers through June, according to Trepp.